Hotel Futures

Research publications with permission from D.A. Dransfield & Co

Latest Publications

Hotel Futures 2006

This tenth edition of Hotel Futures contains information on the revenue performance of major Australian Hotel Markets and forecasts to 2014. The report is based on supply and demand information available as at November 2006. Hotel Futures 1997 was the first published forecast of hotel revenues for major Australian Hotel investment markets. In Hotel Futures 2006, these forecasts are revised and extended to 2014.

Hotel Futures 2005

This ninth edition of Hotel Futures contains information on the revenue performance of major Australian Hotel Markets and forecasts to 2013. The report is based on supply and demand information available as at October 2005.

In producing Hotel Futures, D.A. Dransfield & Co have committed to making available long term historical information, and making accessible to investors and other stakeholders one integrated view of what the future for hotels might look like. Investors now have available to them forecasts of key demand drivers, published by Tourism Research Australia, and information on supply published by the Tourism Forecasting Committee and a number of other government and private sources. Hotel Futures seeks to interpret these indicators by combining them together in a supply/demand equation to forecast hotel revenues.

These forecasts are reviewed on a quarterly basis with short term forecasts revised taking regard of actual performance and current market conditions. The quarterly updates are available below:

Hotel Futures Quartlerly Report
March 2006

March 2006 quarter saw yield growth of 5.9% which was characterised by relatively stable supply and demand, both below prior expectation levels. This resulted in revenue growth slightly below expectations from a higher 2005 base. Supply increases of 2.3% were absorbed by 2.2% demand growth resulting in stable occupancy at 75.0%. Yield growth was caused by an impressive 6% increase in average rates.

Yield growth was very strong in Adelaide (21.0%), Perth (16.7%), Canberra (11.8%), Melbourne (10.6%) and Brisbane (9.4%). All cities recorded positive yield growth except Sydney which fell by 2.6% following a 1.8% decline in demand.

Hotel Futures Quartlerly Report
December 2005

Hotel Futures Quartlerly Report
September 2005

Hotel Futures Quartlerly Report
June 2005

Hotel Futures Quartlerly Report
March 2005

D.A. Dransfield & Co is a specialist asset management, consulting, financial advisory and reconstruction practice, advising the tourism and hospitality industries. Visit www.dransfield.com.au for more information.